For the Media

Although the media continue to play up the horse-race aspect of the presidential campaign, it is important to note that we have a long way to go. Another way to think about it is that an important national election is much like an NBA game – not much happens until the fourth quarter. And in that fourth quarter a minute can seem like a lifetime. Timeouts are called, points are scored in bunches, players turn the ball over, and the crowd gets whipped up in a frenzy.

In other words, for all of the noise generated by the party conventions and the subsequent (requisite?) media panting, we still have two months, three presidential debates, and one vice presidential debate ahead of us.

Now I know my social science colleagues believe they can accurately predict the outcome of elections using a few key variables. For example, some argue that the incumbent party almost always loses if they have been in power for two terms. Others contend that presidential elections turn on things like which candidate is ahead in the polls right after Labor Day or which candidate is taller.

Perhaps the most elegant of the predictive models is the one used by Alan Abramowitz of Emory University. Abramowitz’s model is pretty straightforward: “the president’s net approval rating (NAR - approval minus disapproval) in the Gallup Poll plus five times the annual growth rate of real GDP minus 25 if the president’s party has held the White House for two terms or longer.” Abramowitz calls this formula the Electoral Barometer (EB). It ranges from 100 to -100. A positive EB usually means the president’s party wins and a negative EB usually means the president’s party loses. The EB, according to Abramowitz, has predicted the winner of the popular vote in 14 of the 15 of the presidential elections since WW II.

For the 2008 presidential election this formula predicts the following:

EB = 28-69 (NAR) + (5*3.0 GDP) – 25 = -51.

By this account, Obama should win the election handily. For instance, the EB in 1980 was -66 and Reagan won by 9.7% of the popular vote. Likewise, the EB in 1952 was -49.5 and Eisenhower won by 10.9%.

So why are the opinion polls so close and David Axelrod is biting his fingernails? It’s because these models don’t adequately account for the “fourth quarter” effect. You see, people aren’t sure if Obama can really handle the job of head coach. They aren’t sure if the plays that worked in the first half are solid down the stretch, that he can call timeout at the appropriate time, or devise a clever play to get the last shot. They aren’t convinced his team can cool off the hot shooting guard (Sarah Palin) from the other team. In short, they are not convinced he can deliver the goods in “crunch time” (Plot line sound familiar? See, “Glory Road”!).

And folks, in crunch time minutes unfold in dog years. Don’t put your money down on the table just yet.

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