UCLA political scientist Lynn Vavreck, who studies campaigns with an emphasis on how candidate behavior affects voters, says concern about the economy should trump other 2008 issues, even the war in Iraq. "Public opinion on the economy is never divided," she suggests. "People prefer poropsperity to decline."
"The economy is the single most important issue in any presidential election, going back 50 years or more," Vavreck said in a video interview at the UCLA Newsroom. "So if you want to know the outcome of the 2008 election today, not even knowing who the candidates are likely to be, we can look at the state of the economy and predict."
With public fears growing, she contends, history is not on the Republican side. "The Republican party, the incumbent party, is not likely to win the 2008 election regardless of who the parties nominate."
Vavreck's bio and media contact (She will be available at (650) 305-9424 on the scene of the Democratic debate in Los Angeles on Jan. 31, 2008.)
The following UCLA faculty members are also available to comment on the 2008 campaign for president:
Mark Sawyer, associate professor of political science and director of the UCLA Center for the Study of Race, Ethnicity and Politics, can comment on the role of minority and young voters in the presidential election.
Mark Peterson, professor of public policy, can address the role of health care policy in the campaigns. He specializes in the interactions among the presidency, Congress and interest groups, with an emphasis on health care policy.
Franklin D. Gilliam Jr., UCLA associate vice chancellor of community partnerships and political science professor, can comment on racial and urban politics in the presidential election and how effectively candidates' messages resonate with voters. He has written extensively on African American politics, political communication and the mass media.
Daniel Hays Lowenstein, professor of law, can discuss the legal and policy aspects of election procedures. He is a leading expert on election law and has represented members of Congress in litigation regarding reapportionment and the constitutionality of term limits.
